As the new political system established in Iraq after 2003 emerged amid various crises, foreign interventions and social polarizations, some actors periodically came to the forefront, while others became completely ineffective. However, Muqtada al-Sadr has been one of the rare figures in Iraqi politics who has maintained his presence despite the ever-changing balance of power, repeatedly influencing the political landscape in decisive ways. Endowed with political, religious, and social resonance within the Iraqi society—as well as multilayered legitimacy—Sadr stands out as an actor in Iraqi politics who is different to interpret and often impossible to predict with conventional analytical frameworks. Therefore, evaluating the position of the Sadrist Movement in Iraqi politics and al-Sadr’s strategic preferences for the upcoming parliamentary elections of November 11 is of critical importance both in terms of Iraq’s internal political dynamics and the positions of regional actors.
The unpredictability of the Sadrist Movement cannot be explained solely by its sudden shifts in decision-making or its extra-systemic behaviors. The deeper underlying factors are directly related to the structural problems of the Iraqi political system, the internal power struggles within Shiite politics, the influence of external actors, and the crisis of political representation in the public’s perception. Al-Sadr’s periodic movement toward the center of the political system—followed by his subsequent withdrawal—should be evaluated together with his personal political style and broader structural dynamics. In particular, his withdrawal from parliament after failing to form a majority government, despite securing 73 seats in the 2021 elections, and his subsequent mobilization of street-level opposition, which put pressure on the system, positioned him as a figure who “broke the traditional rules” of Iraqi politics.
The main objective of this study is to analyze how, and in what way, the Sadrist Movement may return to the political arena in the lead-up to the 2025 elections. However, this assessment should not focus solely on current developments; it must also consider the political evolution of the Sadrist Movement since 2005, its relationship with the changes in the Iraqi electoral system, and its positioning within Shiite politics. This broader perspective is essential because al-Sadr’s activity on the political stage is often both a reaction to unfolding events and part of a pre-planned strategy grounded in popular support.
Since the 2005 elections, the Sadrist Movement had engaged in politics under the umbrella of the Iraqi National Alliance; however, it later evolved into an independent political force, transcending the boundaries of this alliance. Al-Sadr’s tensions with Nouri al-Maliki, the influence of the Mahdi Army on the streets, and intra-sectarian divisions have been both causes and consequences of this transformation. The most prominent milestones in this evolution include the participation of the Ahrar Bloc in the 2014 elections, the first-place victory of the Sairoon Coalition in 2018, and the 73 seats won in the 2021 elections by leveraging the narrowed constituencies system. However, the most striking development occurred in 2022, when, despite these political gains, the Sadrist Movement withdrew from parliament and suspended its political activities.
Sadr’s decision to withdraw from the political channel was not only a sign of failure but also an attempt at repositioning. This decision was driven not only by the failure to form a government but also by the power struggle with the Shiite Coordination Framework, Ayatollah Kadhim al-Haeri’s withdrawal from the marjah, and shifts in the foundation of religious legitimacy. These developments forced al-Sadr to opt for street politics. Over time, however, it has become evident that the limitations of this approach have also been reached. The boycott of the Iraqi Provincial Council Elections of 2024 and the movement’s signals of restructuring under the name “National Shiite Movement” ahead of the 2025 elections indicate a cautious yet determined intention to return to the political arena.
In this context, whether the Sadrist Movement will participate in the 2025 elections is not merely a strategic decision specific to the movement itself. It will also be a decisive factor in shaping the future of Iraq’s political system, influencing the balance between within Shiite politics, and the positions of external actors. Al-Sadr’s decision to participate in the elections will have a direct impact on the legitimacy of the current government, post-election coalition scenarios, and the public confidence in the ballot box. Moreover, this decision could lead regional powers such as the U.S. and Iran to reconsider their Iraq policy.
