Introduction
Geopolitical balances in the Middle East and East Africa are shaped by the conflicting interests of major powers and the strategic moves of regional actors. Recent developments have further complicated power relations in the region. In particular, while the relationships between the U.S., Egypt, Ethiopia, and Israel had long progressed in a state of equilibrium, the Trump administration’s new policy toward Gaza triggered dynamics that would reshape these balances. Donald Trump’s plan to evacuate Palestinians from Gaza not only affected the Israeli-Palestinian conflict but also influenced Egypt’s regional role and its relations with the U.S. The reverberations of this policy even extended to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) crisis with Ethiopia.
Although Egypt has historically been one of the U.S.’s most important regional allies, its relations with Washington have occasionally been strained due to Egypt’s human rights violations and its regional policies. On the other hand, U.S.-Ethiopia relations have remained stable within the framework of counterterrorism efforts and development projects, but have lacked the strategic depth found in the Cairo-Washington axis. While U.S.-Israel relations have always progressed in strategic harmony, Egypt-Israel relations have settled into a functional balance based on security and intelligence cooperation. Relations between Ethiopia and Israel have developed through cooperation in water management and security. However, the region’s diplomatic sensitivities entered a new phase with the Trump administration’s Gaza plan.
In this context, at the intersection of Middle Eastern politics and Nile geopolitics, a new axis of tension has emerged, particularly due to Trump’s controversial proposal to relocate Palestinians from Gaza. This plan had significant implications for water security, demographic balances, and Egypt’s strategic position in the region. The proposal, which envisages the transformation of Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East” and the resettlement of displaced Palestinians in Egypt and Jordan, was met with strong backlash, particularly from Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. In protest, Sisi canceled a planned visit to Washington. Additionally, reports suggested that Trump, as part of this escalating tension, used the GERD issue in Ethiopia as a bargaining tool to pressure Cairo. In light of this, a U.S. envoy implied that Egypt’s cooperation in resettling the Gaza population in Egypt and Jordan could influence America’s involvement in resolving the GERD dispute.
The potential linkage between these two crises brings together three issues that may seem unrelated but are strategically interconnected:
- The Gaza-related tension between the U.S. and Egypt,
- The long-standing GERD dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia,
- The role of Israel, a key U.S. ally with direct interests in both the Gaza and GERD issues.
Against this backdrop, it was suggested that King Abdullah II of Jordan convinced Trump to support Egypt’s reconstruction plan, while Trump reportedly continued to back the population relocation proposal but stated he would “step back and offer advice” for the time being. The U.S.’ lack of a firm stance indicates that the trajectory of U.S.-Egypt relations will directly shape the course of the GERD dispute. A U.S.-Egyptian alignment on Gaza could make Cairo more assertive in the GERD negotiations, while prolonged tensions could force Egypt to reconsider its alliances and alter the regional balance of power.
Trump’s plan to resettle Palestinians in neighboring countries heightened diplomatic tensions between Egypt and the U.S., subsequently turning the GERD crisis into an integral part of Middle Eastern politics. If U.S.-Egypt alignment weakens, Ethiopia may have the opportunity to strengthen its ties with regional and global powers. Conversely, if Cairo aligns with Washington, it could potentially gain diplomatic leverage in GERD negotiations.
Accordingly, the study is based on two main hypotheses: First, that Cairo may increase pressure on the GERD if the U.S. and Egypt reach an agreement on Gaza; and second, that Ethiopia may gain a more advantageous position on the dam if tension in U.S.-Egypt relations persist.
This study aims to analyze the impact of the Trump administration’s Gaza plan on U.S.-Egypt relations and, consequently, on Ethiopia’s GERD policy. Within the framework of regional dynamics, diplomatic maneuvering by key actors, and international power balances, the paper examines the connections between U.S. policy on Gaza and the issue of water security in the Nile Basin, evaluating potential scenarios and their broader implications.
