The Israel-Gaza war, which broke out on October 7, 2023, has resonated deeply not only in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean but also throughout North Africa and the Red Sea. The ongoing conflict for over a year has revealed how the Palestinian cause continues to shape strategic and political dynamics across the region. In North Africa, Egypt has taken steps towards peace through mediation efforts, while countries such as Algeria and Tunisia have shown strong verbal support for Palestine. Morocco, despite normalising relations with Israel through the Abraham Accords, has continued to offer diplomatic support to the Palestinian cause. Meanwhile, the internal political instability in Libya has complicated the development of concrete policies toward the Palestinian issue. In this period, Israel's operations in the region and the Houthi attacks on Western and Israeli commercial vessels in the Red Sea have increased security threats in the Middle East and heightened risks for maritime shipping. The Gaza conflict has emerged not only as a humanitarian crisis but as a process with geopolitical consequences, reshaping power balances in North Africa and the Middle East.
The Approach of North African Countries
In response to the Israel-Gaza war that erupted on October 7, 2023, Egypt has adopted a balanced stance, aiming to protect regional stability while ensuring its national security. Since the onset of the conflict, Egypt has played an active role as a mediator between Israel and Palestinian groups. As soon as the clashes in Gaza began, Egypt increased its diplomatic efforts, hosting several meetings to secure a ceasefire. The Rafah Crossing played a crucial role in allowing humanitarian aid to reach Gaza, solidifying Egypt’s strategic influence over the area. Egypt's efforts focused on opening humanitarian corridors and reducing civilian casualties in Gaza through the Rafah border crossings. However, Egypt also voiced concerns that the war could lead to a refugee influx into its territory and escalate security threats in the Sinai Peninsula. Balancing its relations with Western allies, Egypt pursued a strategy that sought to maintain its regional standing while managing the fallout from Israel's attacks.
Morocco, having normalised relations with Israel through the 2020 Abraham Accords, has maintained its support for the Palestinian cause, albeit within limited diplomatic bounds. During the 2023 Israel-Gaza conflict, Morocco demonstrated its solidarity with the Palestinians through humanitarian aid and diplomatic statements. While expanding its commercial and cultural ties with Israel, Morocco has maintained a distance from Israel’s policies on sensitive issues like the status of Jerusalem. King Mohammed VI emphasised the significance of Jerusalem to the Islamic world, reiterating Morocco’s support for the Palestinian cause. However, this balancing act has not silenced domestic criticisms, with calls for stronger support for Palestine emerging in Moroccan public opinion. In this context, boycotts of Israeli goods within Morocco have had an impact, with international brands withdrawing from the Moroccan market due to public pressure.
Algeria has been one of the strongest supporters of Palestine during the Israel-Gaza war. The Algerian government harshly condemned Israel's attacks on Gaza and called for a stronger stance from the Arab world against Israel. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune repeatedly emphasised Algeria’s commitment to the Palestinian cause, urging an increase in diplomatic support for Palestine. During this period, Algeria hosted the Arab League Summit, where the Palestinian issue dominated the agenda. Algeria continued to reject any participation in the normalisation process with Israel and openly opposed the Abraham Accords.
Tunisia also gave strong verbal support to Palestine during the Israel-Gaza war. The Tunisian government condemned Israel's attacks on Gaza and called on the international community to protect the Palestinian people. President Kais Saied gave special importance to the Palestinian cause, emphasising that Tunisia would not participate in any normalisation process with Israel. However, Tunisia’s internal political issues and economic crises have limited the country’s ability to translate its verbal support into concrete policy actions. Thus, domestic challenges have hindered Tunisia's potential to play a more effective regional role regarding the Palestinian issue.
Although Libya has experienced “relative stability” in recent years, its internal conflict and political fragmentation have made it difficult to formulate a coherent foreign policy on the Palestinian issue. Since October 7, 2023, different political factions in Libya have made statements supporting Palestine and condemning Israel. However, due to the intensity of Libya's internal dynamics and conflicts, more effective foreign policy actions concerning Palestine have not been forthcoming. Despite this, anti-Israel rhetoric has remained dominant within the country.
The Red Sea: Regionalisation of the Israel-Gaza War
The Houthi attacks on Western and Israeli-owned logistics ships in the Red Sea have posed a significant threat to maritime shipping in the region. The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Aden are among the most critical global trade routes. These strategic moves by the Houthis have disrupted maritime traffic along these routes, targeting the economic and security interests of both Israel and its Western allies. The focus on commercial vessels suggests an attempt by the Houthis to undermine Western military and economic presence in the region while increasing their strategic leverage among regional actors. These attacks also highlight the potential for the Yemeni civil war to evolve into a broader regional security crisis.
In response to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, Israel has carried out airstrikes targeting Houthi positions in Yemen. These operations, which have mainly targeted infrastructure, aim to protect Israel’s commercial interests along maritime routes while demonstrating Israel’s military deterrence capabilities against the strategic threats posed by the Houthis. Israel’s military response also signals to its Western allies that it remains an active player in the region’s security architecture. It is evident that Israel views these operations as a strategic priority to weaken the Houthis’ ties with Iran and safeguard energy security in the Red Sea.
As the risks in the Red Sea increase, the rise in insurance premiums for maritime shipping due to heightened dangers also suggests a potential economic benefit for insurance companies. However, these attacks present some disadvantages as well, with the increase in damages and operational risks resulting in higher claims. Moreover, the growing security threats to commercial vessels and logistics operations have boosted the demand for private security services. Companies providing armed security teams, risk assessments, security protocols, and maritime traffic monitoring, such as Ambrey, Control Risks, MAST Security, and Neptune P2P Group, have seen greater demand due to the escalating threats since the start of the Israel-Gaza conflict.
Conclusion
The first anniversary of the Gaza war signals significant shifts in regional balances. North African countries, particularly Egypt, Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, have exhibited diverse foreign policy approaches concerning the Palestinian cause, reflecting their efforts to balance their strategic interests. Egypt’s mediation and humanitarian role have strengthened its regional influence, while Morocco has navigated between its normalisation with Israel and diplomatic support for Palestine. Algeria and Tunisia have maintained a clearer pro-Palestinian stance. On the other hand, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and Israel’s responses have increased the security risks to maritime trade, positioning the Red Sea as a more central stage in the geopolitical struggle of the Middle East. These attacks have reinforced Israel’s active role in the regional security architecture, highlighting the need for greater international cooperation to protect energy and trade routes. Looking ahead, the increasing security risks in the Red Sea could raise the costs of maritime trade, signalling a period in which regional countries will need to develop more integrated policies in security, trade, and diplomacy.
