INTRODUCTION
In the international security and terrorism literature, DAESH has emerged as a hybrid entity that exhibits the characteristics of a proto-state structure and reflects the strategic evolution of al-Qaeda ideology (al-Qaedaism). The organization, which underwent a transformation after splitting from al-Qaeda in Iraq, has developed a terrorism model that reshaped international security dynamics.
The geopolitical fragilities in Syria and Iraq have been the main dynamics behind DAESH’s rapid rise. In particular, the structural security vacuum created after the 2003 invasion of Iraq by the U.S., the chaotic environment resulted from the civil war, and the ethnic and sectarian tensions in the region enabled the organization to systematically gain ground. The complete dismantling of the Baath regime and the dissolution of state institutions in the post-invasion period led to the exclusion of Iraq’s Sunni Arab population from the political system. The “de-Baathification” policies implemented by the Iraqi central government under Nouri al-Maliki have removed almost all Saddam-era civil servants, officers, and security personnel from public office. This paved the way for a significant number of qualified members of the security structures and bureaucracy to be pushed out of the system and potentially radicalized. The Shiite-dominated central government’s exclusionary and discriminatory policies toward Sunni regions have further escalated tensions in the region. The failure to effectively restructure the Iraqi army and the prolonged security vacuum have created ideal conditions for radical groups to grow. This structural unraveling became one of the main dynamics that enabled DAESH’s rapid expansion in the region, compounded by the impact of the Arab Spring and the Syrian civil war.
After expanding by filling power gaps in the region, DAESH lost important strategic centers it controlled in Syria and Iraq as of 2017 due to coordinated operations by international coalition forces. The fall of key cities such as Mosul, Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor led to the de facto collapse of DAESH’s state-like organization. The killing of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in a U.S. operation in 2019 was a heavy blow to the symbolic and operational leadership of the organization. In this process, DAESH lost approximately 50,000 militants and suffered a significant loss of territory. However, although these operations seem to have narrowed the territories controlled by the organization in Syria and Iraq, they have not completely ended DAESH’s ideological and organizational structure. On the contrary, it has developed a flexible network and organizational model to survive on a global scale.
This strategic transformation demonstrates that the terrorist organization has evolved from a purely armed group into a complex entity that exploits areas of socio-political disintegration. As part of this process, the organization began channeling its global networks into various conflict zones around the world. In the Horn of Africa, Somalia became a critical geographical area for DAESH’s new expansion and reconstruction strategy.
Weak state structures, chronic security weaknesses, and ethno-religious tensions in the region have provided a favorable geopolitical backdrop for the organization to grow further. In particular, the region’s strategic location—the intersection of the Red Sea, the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Peninsula—offers a unique geopolitical opportunity for the expansion strategies of terrorist organizations such as DAESH.
The geostrategic importance of the region shapes DAESH’s potential expansion corridors in terms of trade routes, maritime security, and global power competition, directly affecting the organization’s regional and global objectives. The presence and activities of DAESH in Somalia warrant a detailed examination within the context of its fragile state structure, its rivalry with the al-Shabaab terrorist organization, and regional dynamics. However, when analyzing DAESH as a terrorist organization, a more accurate approach would focus on its ideological foundations and the factors that enable the spread of this ideology, rather than purely numerical data. In this context, the organization systematically applies the practices of marginalization, polarization, and legitimization of violence with historical references. The organization’s ideological framework has the potential to quickly find a base and expand its sphere of influence in any region where favorable social, political, and economic conditions exist.
From this perspective, when assessing DAESH’s presence in Somalia, it is essential to examine the dynamics that fuel the organization’s ideology and the local reflections of these dynamics, rather than focusing on the quantitative data of the organization’s members. This approach provides a more comprehensive analytical framework to understand the sustainability of the organization’s presence in the region and potential areas of expansion. In other words, it must make sense of its existence through the questions of why and how. DAESH completed its radicalization steps through ideological, technical, and physical training in various parts of the world, subsequently having the opportunity to put these experiences into practice in Somalia. Peter Neumann, discussing this process of DAESH, emphasizes that counterterrorism strategies should not be limited to security measures but should also take into account economic, social, psychological, and political factors. According to Neumann, understanding the conditions that lead to the radicalization of individuals before acts of terrorism enables more effective counterterrorism efforts. From this perspective, focusing on “what happens before the bombs go off” is critical to understanding DAESH’s presence in Somalia.
On the other hand, John Horgan offers a different perspective, analyzing DAESH’s presence in Somalia through the question of why, but focusing on how this process occured. This approach provides a broader perspective in understanding DAESH’s recruitment strategies. Together, these two approaches offer an important framework for analyzing how and why DAESH took root in Somalia. To understand DAESH’s expansion in the Somali context, addressing both the questions of why individuals are radicalized and how this process unfolds will enable a more comprehensive assessment of the organization’s expansion strategies. These factors suggest that the organization should be considered not only a terrorist group but also a radical ideological movement.
Accordingly, this study aims to examine DAESH’s presence and expansion dynamics in Somalia within a multidimensional analytical framework. The study analysis the organization’s structure in the region not only from a security perspective but also in terms of ideological, socio-political and, geostrategic parameters. The focus of the research is on DAESH’s interaction with factors such as ideological diffusion mechanisms, competition dynamics with al-Shabaab, and state fragility. In this framework, the study aims to conceptualize the organization’s presence in Somalia as a multi-layered entity.
