ORSAM Panel on “Effects of the Syrian Crisis on the Neighboring Countries” in Cooperation with Issam Fares Institute, American University of Beirut

7 dakika okuma süresi

ORSAM published a report titled “Effects of the Syrian Crisis on the Neighboring Countries” on 15 June 2016. The introductory meeting ofthis report was held in cooperation between the Center for MiddleEastern Strategic Studies (ORSAM) and Issam Fares Institute existingunder American University of Beirut. The meeting took place at IssamFares Institute, on the campus of American University of Beirut. Afterthe introductory meeting, a session was organized with the same titleas the report where Iraqi, Lebanese, Turkish and Syrian academiciansparticipated. The speakers invited from Syria’s neighboring countriesmade presentations about the effects of the Syrian crisis on the politics, economy, society and security of their countries. ÇağatayErciyes, Ambassador of Republic of Turkey in Beirut, Lebaneseofficials, Lebanese academicians, Lebanese press and the studentsAmerican University of Beirut participated in the meeting.

The panel started with the speeches of ORSAM President Assoc. Prof.Dr. Şaban Kardaş, Vice-president of Issam Fares Institute Rayan ElAmine and Vice-president of the Syria/Iraq branch office of the KonradAdenauer Foundation which provided support for the panel. The reportthat ORSAM prepared with field studies in four neighboring countriesof Syria (Turkey, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon) was prepared in the firstsession of the meeting which constituted of two sessions. From acomparative perspective, the report revealed the effects of the Syriancivil war on four neighboring countries in terms of migration, economy, society and security as well as its consequences regardingthe radicalization trends, state structure and armament. In the firstsession, academic member of Uludağ University and ORSAM Advisor Assoc.Prof. Dr. Ferhat Pirinççi and ORSAM Researcher Oytun Orhan made theirpresentations as report writers.Taking the floor as the first speaker, Pirinççi mentioned the effectsof the Syrian crisis on Iraq and Lebanon. Pirinççi indicated thatSyria’s neighboring countries were exposed to similar effects due tothe civil war but each country were differently affected and resortedto different solutions due to their different characteristics.Primarily dealing with the human dimension of the crisis, Pirinççistated that there were a number of displaced people in Iraq eventhough the number of refugees in Iraq was lower than the otherneighboring countries. He said that there were around 245 thousandSyrian refugees in Iraq but 2.2 million Iraqi people had to leavetheir houses and migrate to safer regions in the country. Heunderlined that the second effect of the crisis was thedestabilization of Iraqi state structure and stated that the politicallife started to become more problematic. Within this framework, heclaimed that the process of founding a government and electing apresident became more difficult and “revenge policies” were oftenfollowed together with ISIS. Pirinççi also touched upon the social andeconomic effects of the crisis and drew attention to the Iraqistructural problems by comparing the Iraqi economy to that of Turkey.Concerning the social effects of the Syrian crisis, Pirinççi indicatedthat Iraqi demographic structure started to change and differentpowers in Iraq adopted forced migration as a policy. In militaryterms, ISIS took control of certain regions in Iraq. Pirinççiassociated this with the support of local population and said that thereason was an important part of these people found ISIS as a powerthat saved them from the Iraqi army they saw as “Maliki’s oppressioninstrument”. Finally, Pirinççi addressed the effects of the crisis onIraq’s international and regional allies. Pirinççi touched upon theeffects of the Syrian crisis on Lebanon. Indicating that Lebanon wasthe second large country (after Turkey) that received Syrian refugees,Pirinççi added: “Today the number of Syrian refugees in Lebanon isequal to the imaginary number of 18 million refugees arriving inTurkey. Therefore, 1 out of 4 people in Lebanon is a refugee.”Underlining the serious effects of the crisis on Lebanese statestructure, Pirinççi said: “Lebanese groups’ position in the Syriancrisis directly affects this process. There was no government in Lebanon when the Syrian crisis was at itshighest level; the country was under the control of s transitionalgovernment. The parliamentary elections in Lebanon were supposed to beheld in 2013 but it has now been postponed to 2017. Lebanon facesserious problems.”Taking the floor after Pirinççi, Orhan firstly mentioned the effects of the Syrian crisis on Turkey. Orhan shared the basic data aboutSyrians in Turkey concerning the effects on migration. Orhan indicatedit was estimated that there was 2.748.367 Syrians registered in Turkeyas of May 2016 but the real figures were over 3 million. Defending that the Syrian refugee crisis did not only have negative but also positive effects, Orhan indicated that they contributed to the countries they settled in especially in economic terms. However, he mentioned that there was a tension for such reasons as different social life, difference of language and culture, changing demographic structure. He also stated that Turkey had the chance to turn the Syrian refugee crisis into an opportunity thanks to its political stability, the efficiency of the state mechanism and economic capacity. In this sense, he underlined the improvement of the capacity of the government agencies, notably AFAD (Disaster and Emergency Management Authority) and nongovernmental organizations. Economically speaking, he indicated that the Syrian crisis initially caused turbulence but it was overcome and the pre-crisis figures were attained in time. However, it is foreseen that there would be a much more positive image than now if it weren’t for the expenses that Turkey made for the Syrians and for the crisis. Therefore, he indicated that the Syrian crisis would negatively affect Turkish economy in general. Orhan said that the Syrian crisis was the most negatively felt in the field of security and touched upon the challenges that the rise of PKK/YPG and ISIS terror organizations caused in Syria. Finally mentioning the effects of the Syrian civil war on Jordan, Orhan indicated that such consequences as radicalization and disintegration of Syria caused concerns in Lebanon.

After the introduction of the report, the panel titled “Effects of the Syrian Crisis on the Neighboring Countries” was held under the chairmanship of ORSAM President Şaban Kardaş. In this session of the panel, the speakers from Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Turkey made presentations about the effects of the Syrian crisis on their own countries on different dimensions. Academic member of American University of Beirut and Syrian academician Fouad Fouad delivered the first speech at the panel. In his speech, Fouad mostly talked about the effects of Syrian refugees on Lebanon on the basis of Syrian crisis. The second speaker of the panel was Salam Kawakibi, member of nongovernmental organization called Arab Reform Initiative and Syrian activist. Kawakibi indicated that the international community fails to solve the Syrian crisis and evaluated the positions that the four neighboring countries took from the Syrian viewpoint.After Kawakibi, Dilaver Ala Aldeen took the floor as an invitee from Iraq. President of MERI, the prominent research center in Iraqi Kurdistan, Aldeen made a presentation about the meaning of the Syrian crisis for Iraq and especially for Iraqi Kurdistan. Lastly, Republic of Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs President of the Academy of Diplomacy Assoc. Prof. Dr. Mesut Özcan made a presentation about the effects of the Syrian crisis on Turkey. Özcan mentioned the effects of the crisis on the politics, economy and security of Turkey. The meeting ended with the comments of the participants and the question-answer session.