Introduction
As the sixth round of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations approached, Israel launched a series of attacks on Iran at approximately 03:00 a.m. on June 13, 2025. These attacks, named Operation Am Kelavi (meaning “Rising Lion”) in reference to the Torah, reportedly involved more than 200 aircraft on the first day. In addition to nuclear facilities, the operation targeted commanders from both the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Artesh (regular army). The operation directly aimed at nuclear sites, senior military officials, and nuclear scientists. As part of the early morning airstrikes, IRGC Commander-in-Chief Hossein Salami, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Mohammad Bagheri, Commander of the IRGC’s Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters (Joint Forces Command) Gholam Ali Rashid, Quds Force Commander Esmail Qaani, and Commander of the Aerospace Force Amir Ali Hajizadeh were killed inside their residences and military headquarters. In addition, the attack targeted several nuclear scientists who played key roles in Iran’s nuclear program. As a result, at least six nuclear scientists, including former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), Fereydoon Abbasi, were assassinated in their homes. A large number of civilians were also killed or injured in the attacks. Open sources contain allegations that, alongside the airstrikes, Mossad operatives inside Iran also carried out drone operations. The strikes targeted nuclear and military facilities located in Tehran, Tabriz, Kermanshah, Qom, Hamadan, Isfahan, and Fordow. Overall, the level of violence between the two countries has been following a steadily intensifying trajectory, particularly in April and October 2024, and most recently in June 2025.
The tension between Israel and Iran has long been one of the fundamental dynamics shaping the security architecture of the Middle East. However, Israel’s recent targeted airstrikes against Iran indicate that this contentious relationship has entered a new phase—both in terms of its substance and its geographical scope. These attacks not only increase the likelihood of direct confrontation between the two countries but also compel regional and global actors to reassess their strategic positions. Particularly after Iran’s direct retaliation to the most recent strikes, the confrontation has now evolved into an overt war. What we are witnessing is no longer a shadow war confined to tactical maneuvers, but rather the emergence of a new front line in which both states are directly engaged. This war represents a unilateral act of aggression by Israel, a state that has long justified its presence in the region through narratives of conflict, warfare, and instability. The current war cycle and the resulting regional destabilization have been reignited by Israel at a moment when nearly all other countries in the Middle East have been striving to break free from a protracted cycle of destruction and instead focus on building a stable, peaceful, and economically oriented regional order. Therefore, this war is not merely a bilateral confrontation; it stands as both a critical juncture and a test for all actors aiming to redefine the future of the region.
Israel’s attacks against Iran represent not only a bilateral confrontation but also the manifestation of a multilayered regional and global issue. Although Iran’s influence—exercised for years through proxy forces in countries such as Syria and Lebanon—was largely dismantled following the Syrian Revolution on December 8, 2024, the potential for continued tension persists in other areas such as Iraq and Yemen. While the Gulf states are concerned about the spillover of instability into their own territories, they have adopted a stance of disapproval toward Israel, albeit tempered with caution. On the global level, the U.S. support for Israel, contrasted with the more balanced, cautious, and non-confrontational approaches of Russia and China for the moment, risks generating significant mistrust and instability among major powers. Türkiye, for its part, has been pursuing diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalation, formulating peaceful solutions in line with shifting on-the-ground dynamics and its national interests. Collectively, these developments render the trajectory of the Israel–Iran conflict even more critical, offering key insights into the future of both regional security and the broader international order.
This report, written as the first day of Israel’s attacks was drawing to a close, provides a multilayered analysis of the internal and external dimensions of the Israel–Iran war, evaluating the initial day of hostilities within this broader context. It offers a detailed examination of how security discourse is instrumentalized in Israeli domestic politics, Iran’s reactions—particularly concerning regime security, nuclear infrastructure, and senior leadership—as well as the perspectives of Iraqi Shiite actors and the Gulf states. The report also addresses the spillover effects in North and East Africa, outlines possible scenarios for the future of U.S.–Israel relations, and assesses the positions of Russia and China, along with Türkiye’s evolving regional stance.
The report not only documents current developments but also offers a strategic-level analysis of the potential implications of the Israel–Iran confrontation for the regional order. In this respect, it serves both as a reference source and a guiding analytical framework for decision-makers, policymakers, media professionals, and academic circles alike.
